Bitcoin has rallied 100% since the beginning of 2019, around 80% of that coming in the last 30 days.
It started with a reclaiming of the $6,000 mark, which was where Bitcoin spent much of 2018 consolidating before falling to a new range of $3,000 – $4,000.
While most charting experts thought we’d see big resistance at $6,000, Bitcoin smashed right through it, peaking at $7,500 before pulling back today around the $7,000-$7,200 mark.
As you might imagine, Twitter has been flooded with claims that the bear market is officially over, and we’re on the verge of moon time.
So where are we headed?
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Let’s take a look:
The last time Bitcoin broke upwards through 6k, it reached a new all time high of 20k approximately 8 weeks later. If you’re new to markets, that’s quick. The thing you notice in these markets is that rallies are heavy and very short lived. The majority of gains happen in a very short period of time. The rest of the time is consolidation.
So what is likely to happen here. We could see another consolidation phase in the $6k – $8k range, or we could rally to new heights. Your guess is as good as mine. As you might have read in my previous bear market analysis, I was expecting the next major rally to happen in 2020, so this feels early for me. However, things like this are difficult to predict in a market as young as crypto. This is why I’ve constantly been telling investors to accumulate regularly over these bearish months. When the rally comes, there will be nothing left to do except watch and smile.
With this rally, it is also looking increasingly likely that the low of $3,194 we saw in December 2018 is likely going to be the bottom of this bear market. Some commentators think we could retrace back to $1,800 support levels, however I think that is very unlikely. If this market does appear to have bottomed out, we would have started accumulating in our public portfolio at pretty much exactly the right time. How nice!
Other than that, there’s not really a lot to say today. Predictions are always airy in times like this, and if you’ve been following me a while the bulk of your accumulating should already be done. If you’re new, my advice is still the same; accumulate slowly and dollar-cost-average in. If you have $1,000 to invest, start with $10 or $20 per week, maybe raise it to $50 or $100 as your knowledge and confidence grows. Steady and measured wins the race. We are not at the stage of euphoria yet (that’s when we’ll talk about profit taking), so there’s still (some) time.